Which cleantech industries are poised for growth in swing states?

To date, the majority of jobs and projects funded by the Inflation Reduction Act have been in conservative regions of the country. In fact, congressional districts that broke for former President Trump in 2020 have received triple as much clean energy and manufacturing investment as those that broke for President Biden, according to a recent analysis by the Washington Post.

But more funding still stands to be deployed — as do more investments from major companies deciding where to build the projects that will allow them to reap the benefits of IRA tax credits.

Regardless of the outcome of this week’s elections, swing states also have a lot to gain from that funding. They’re not just front of mind for the presidential candidates, but several are also at the forefront of the energy transition.

RMI and the Brookings Institution have mapped out where various industries are most likely to thrive across all 50 states, based on a region’s existing economic capabilities, including workforce, and the characteristics of a potential new industry. The study broke the United States down into 179 regions. 

A glance at the data reveals that certain regions of the country where political polarization is most intense are also those best positioned to support multiple clean energy technology manufacturing industries. Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, for instance, all rank extremely high as promising bases for new industries such as solar and battery manufacturing, green hydrogen, and electric vehicles. 

Arizona

According to RMI and Brookings, Arizona is extremely well-positioned to compete in several cleantech sectors. In fact, as far as potential for cleantech manufacturing growth, the Grand Canyon State is right up there with Texas, California, and Michigan.

The state ranks in the top 25% in feasibility for industries including batteries and components manufacturing, electric vehicles, energy transmission equipment, green hydrogen, heat pumps, low-carbon cement and concrete, and wind energy components. The state’s best prospect, according to the data, is in solar energy components manufacturing, where the Phoenix area ranks second out of all 179 regions.

And the funding is already flowing. Since 2022, the region encompassing Phoenix, Mesa, and Scottsdale has seen more than $11 billion in clean energy project announcements, including from battery and solar manufacturing. The Flagstaff region has seen another $610 million, primarily from onshore wind turbine manufacturing.

Michigan

Michigan is another state set for massive growth across a wide swath of cleantech industries. The Detroit area alone has already raked in more than $11 billion in clean energy project announcements since 2022, thanks to EV and battery manufacturing.

Given the state’s auto manufacturing history, it’s probably no surprise that both the Grand Rapids and Detroit regions rank among the top options for EV manufacturing, coming in at 9th and 11th, respectively. Grand Rapids also ranks 8th in the nation for green hydrogen feasibility, and 7th for low-carbon iron and steel.

Georgia

Georgia’s economy is best-positioned to support cleantech industries like solar component manufacturing, where the Atlanta area ranks 10th, and green hydrogen production, where it ranks 11th. The state is also in the top 25% in feasibility for batteries and components, electric vehicles, and wind energy components.

The Albany region has benefitted from $984 million in clean energy project announcements since 2022. And the Savannah region — which ranks 5th among all economic regions studied as far as clean energy project investments relative to the size of the local economy — received just shy of $8 billion, primarily from cells and modules manufacturing. In late 2023, solar manufacturer Qcells announced the completion of its expanded factory in Dalton, Georgia, a $2.5 billion project that the company expects will create more than 500 new jobs in the region. 

Georgia is also a potential hotspot for carbon dioxide removal, according to a separate RMI study, specifically for pathways like enhanced weathering, biomass, direct ocean capture, and direct air capture. That’s thanks in part to agricultural land availability, carbon dioxide geologic storage, and existing mining resources — though RMI notes the state will need to enact relevant climate governance and CDR supply/demand policy to help the sector take off.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is of course at the forefront of conversations about which way the election will swing this week — and its central position in the debate over fracking has been a key topic for both the Harris and Trump campaigns in the state. 

But Pennsylvania has significant potential to benefit from the energy transition nonetheless. It’s also in the top percentile for a number of cleantech manufacturing, with certain regions of the state ranking 13th for energy transmission equipment, 10th for green hydrogen, 9th for heat pumps, and 11th for wind energy components. 

Nevada

The Reno area has seen more than $6 billion in clean energy project announcements in the last two years, while the Las Vegas region has seen another $2.5 billion. Those project announcements largely line up with the industries for which Nevada offers the most feasible growth, namely electric vehicles, batteries and components, and lithium manufacturing. (Earlier this month the Biden administration approved plans for a massive lithium and boron mine in the state, which is expected to produce enough lithium to produce hundreds of thousands of EVs annually for the next twenty years.)

North Carolina

Asheville ranks in the top 25 economic regions for heat pump manufacturing, and the Charlotte region ranks number 13 for solar energy production. To date, however, the Asheville region hasn’t seen any clean energy project announcements — and the damage from Hurricane Helene is likely to complicate future build-outs, as the region is still coping with the nationwide electrical equipment shortage as it works to recover.

The Charlotte region, meanwhile, has seen $1.8 billion, coming primarily from lithium hydroxide manufacturing.

North Carolina also ranks high for carbon dioxide removal potential, thanks to its high farm and forest coverage, its coastal access, and its geologic storage potential. Those criteria make it an excellent candidate for bioenergy and CCS, enhanced weathering, carbon mineralization, and direct air capture, though RMI notes that the state’s overall rating on clean energy availability may make it difficult to attract projects.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin hasn’t seen quite the amount of announced capex spending relative to local GDP that neighboring Michigan has, but the Madison and Milwaukee regions have still seen billions of announced projects in EV chargers and manufacturing as well as solar panel and battery manufacturing.

As far as the state’s potential to foster new cleantech industries, RMI data indicates that green hydrogen, heat pump and wind energy component manufacturing, and low-carbon iron and steel manufacturing are its top bets.